Playoffs, Baby.

 A season wrap up for myself:

What could this season have been without all the injuries?  Even with the injures without loses to bad teams, and blown leads.  Seriously, the Rockets could easily have won 60 games even with the team they had.

Ime Udoka - Brought the team back to relevance but I think everyone expected more from this team.  He certainly deserves more time as HC and with largely this group.  I rate head coaches by what happens after time outs.  Watch and few Steve Kerr games and you'll see what I mean.  A HC exercises the most influence over the next play coming out of a time out.  It is a chance for him to share what he's players might be missing out on the court.  Ime's results here are poor.  Lots of bad sets, lots of turnovers, lots of bad ideas repeated like having KD essentially play point.  The playoffs will be telling.

Kevin Durant - Better than advertised as an individual player.  His durability has been surprising too.  I anticipated he'd miss a lot of games.  Last year's team seemed very tight knit and unified.  That was part of the formula for over achievement.   This year's group doesn't seem as together.  Is KD the reason?  I'm also surprised by how many lazy turnovers he but makes and causes.  It doesn't show up in the stat sheet but sometimes his passes are to just dispose of the ball when he is frustrated and this put his teammates in bad situations that turn into bad results.

Sengun - Has he reached his ceiling?  All-Star is certainly not a bad one.  He has a James Harden like penchant for trying to get fouls when he could easily get a basket instead and also for taking plays off to yell at the refs.  If he could clean this up and some other dumb mistakes he could nudge up to another level.

Amen - Has truly moved up a level this year.  Late in the season including through some difficult weeks he found the magic of consistency.  Really rooting for him to be an All-Star next year.  Next season will also be the one for him to decide whether to abandon his jumper or fix it.

Reed - Does Ime not like this kid?  Case in point, last night's loss.  Houston lost the game because of three point shooting.  Reed turned in two of the Rockets four makes and played 18 minutes.  The Rockets were outscored by 33 points from the line.  Who watches a guy rip off 30 or drain nine threes and then basically doesn't use him after that?  On a team with a very shaky offense.  He's not an individual defender and never will be but who cares, that is not what this kid is for.  Ryan Hollins compared him to Steph.  I would add a Steph that makes play on defense and can dunk.  He has a very high ceiling but he's going to need lots of playing time to get anywhere.  And run sets for him.  Watching Doc Rivers and Steve Kerr come off Reed and leaving KD open is pure magic for this team.

Tari - If you don't love this guy you don't love sports.  I worry for Reed because of what I've seen with Tari.  He's been firmly shoved into the three and D role and I still think he has more to offer.  If he stays with the Rockets we may never find out.

Jabari - He's improved this year too and may also be reaching something approaching his ceiling.  He's a solid player, maybe a little overpaid.  If he can find consistency he can be can drive winning.

Clint - Welcome back, Clint.  People were puzzled when he was signed and he's all but saved the season.

Josh - Expected to be nailed to the bench, he's instead been a solid contributor.  Ime seems to like him.

Dorian, Fred and Steve - Will these guys be healthy next season and when?  There was a lot of excitement  in September and for good reason.  These three being healthy makes for a very deep team.  These guys will need time to work their way back into game shape and then the team will need to gel around them.  That will take time.

Will the Rockets make big changes this offseason?  There has been a pattern with KD led teams of poor chemistry leading to big changes.  Raphael Stone seems like more of a steady hand, and I believe his put together a team that can complete so I'm hoping for health and not for big changes.

The Rockets have an Amen Thompson Problem

Namely, that he isn't a point guard.  They've spent three quarters of this season trying to transform him into one and it isn't working.

Amen is the Rockets third best player after Sengun.  But neither of them can shoot.  So, what's the point of running a pick and roll to get one of them open?

When Steven Adams was around and sometimes now with Clint Capela, coach Udoka rolls out the double big with Amen still on the floor.  That's three non shooters.

The answer is Reed Sheppard and for maybe the best of reasons - the Rockets don't have any other choice.  I don't think there is a question between him and Amen, the real question is what happens next season with Fred VanVleet comes back from serious injury.  He might have to come off the bench in favor and the more dynamic Sheppard.

Amen needs fewer minutes and those minutes need to be staggered with Sengun so the Rockets can keep shooters on the floor most of the game.  He needs to go back to focusing on being one of the best defenders in the league and an opportunistic dunker on the offensive side.

The Point at which You Realize Your Team Doesn't Have Enough

Four of the five guys that started against Game 7 last year are gone.  Steven Adams and Fred VanVleet are injured and Jalen Green and Dillion Brooks are in Phoenix.

What do we have left and what are the problems?

Kevin Durant.  All Star.  Get fired from the Knicks level minutes.  This will catch up to the team in the playoffs.  This team was promised to be deep enough for Kevin to rest but instead he has to play major minutes for them to win.

Alperen Sengun.  All Star.  Did not take enough time to mend that ankle, which will also catchup with the team later.

Real quick ... who's the third best player?

Amen Thompson.  You can't be a star in this league if you can't shoot.  Everyone talks about the three but the guy can't shoot from the free throw area or the wings either.  If Sengun and Durant have gravity, Amen has anti-gravity.  Watching the Spurs flee from him to pack up on other people was painful because it worked really well.

Jabari Smith.  There are no signs that he will ever develop a more complete game.  He's getting paid a lot to be an average to below average three guy and an average to above average D guy.  Would anybody trade for him and take on that salary?  If you aren't going to blossom into baby Kevin Durant, can you at least give me 40% on threes?

Tari Eason.  Probably the more complete player than Jabari.  The team has also stuck him in the three and D box but there seems to be more there.  This may have been the reason talks broke down this off season.

Reed Sheppard.  There are blinding flashes of Steph Curry with defense and dunks.  But just flashes.  It would be fun to see him leading a bad team.  Ime seems to be using him as a microwave off the bench and this doesn't always work.

Josh Okogie and Dorian Finney-Smith.  Josh has been a positive surprise.  DFS doesn't look like he's 100% ready after being so terribly injured.

Clint Capela.  It is good to have him back.  More will be asked of him now.  He's looked much older than he is at times, and sometimes looked like his old self.

Those are the ten guys who will get the minutes the rest of this season.

Texas Fought

 Records vs. Other Currently Ranked Teams

If teams are going to a be ranked solely by wins and losses how about if we sorted them the same way but excluded wins over teams that aren't ranked?

The CFP field will include 12 of these and almost certainly exclude Texas.

4-1 Georgia

3-0 TT (BYU twice and UTAH + bad loss)

-

3-2 Texas

Wins over current #7, #8 and #13

Losses to current #2 and #3

+ bad loss

-

3-2 Oklahoma (lost to Texas)

3-2 Alabama (+ bad loss)

2-0 Indiana

2-1 OSU

2-1 A&M (lost to Texas)

2-1 Ole Miss

1-1 Oregon

1-0 Miami (+ two bad losses)

1-2 Vandy (lost to Texas)

1-2 BYU

0-2 Notre Dame

0-1 Tulane (+ bad loss)

0-0 James Madison (+ bad loss)

So, there are teams at the bottom here with no serious wins and Miami's win was over Notre Dame. 

Alabama has a bad loss to Florida State.  Alabama lost to Oklahoma who lost to Texas.  So, the committee is saying that Texas bad loss to Florida trumps everything else.

They are also sending a clear message that big wins and big game record don't matter.

Line up the cupcakes, please.

If the tournament was 16 teams, these would probably be them.  If I was picking 12 teams solely to have the very best tournament, I'd kick out Miami, Notre Dame, Tulane and James Madison.  BYU sneaks in and who doesn't want to see Vandy in?  But they won't make it, either.

Final question.  Is Texas one of the 12 best teams in the country?  Yes.

Supermax, RFA, and two way deals

 The last CBA was meant to do a lot of things.  In a nutshell, it was meant to blunt free spending teams and prevent teams from buying championships (looking at you in the blue) and protect and enrich players.

But unintended consequences are inevitable.

Super max

Was the trade value of Luka and Fox reduced last season because they would inevitably be do the super max if they stayed with their own teams?  Did Damion Lillard's super max almost destroy two teams?  Portland had to get rid of him and Milwaukie had to waive and stretch him when injured to have any chance to build a team.  How will OKC do with three players on the super max way, way over the second apron?  What will happen to an already tight Denver team when an aging Jokic is due another super max deal?

RFA

Is restricted free agency working as intended?  It was meant to make teams move more quickly to secure their players and / or to give players leverage should it come to pass.  But, instead Quentin Grimes and Jonathon Kuminga had zero leverage when they reached RFA.  That is because no teams have any money to spend.

Rafael Stone has made, what I think, are the right moves signing his young players early in exchange for team friendly-ish deals.  The clock is ticking on Tari Eason, so it'll be interesting to see how the team handles this one.  Tari is not at the level of Amen or Sengun.  I'm sure the team wants to keep him but the calculation is different.  Are there going to be teams willing to spend big for him next summer?

Two way

JD Davison has looked very good in a limited run with the Rockets this pre-season and according to reports, at training camp.  We'll see if that continues.  The Rockets are thin at guard after FVV's injury.  Two way deals were meant to give G League players a chance to prove themselves and earn regular NBA contracts.  But with the Rocket largely hamstrung by the cap, they don't have the room to sign him (or anyone else) to the minimum.  Again, cap wizard Stone will probably find a way to maximize his two way time and find a way to get him a shorter term deal that fits cap space.  Or magically move things around to create cap space.  But again, I think the intention here is up against reality.  The Rockets in an injury situation should be able to sign a veteran or firm up one of their two way players without severe cap penalties.   Cap penalties against a team are so severe that the only logical thing to do is to not reward a good player.

Apple would like to sell you a purse

 Because their phones are too big for human hands or normal clothes pockets.

C'mon.  Doesn't the existence of this thing mean something is wrong?

Sengun vs Parsons

 Rafael Stone is the opposite of Jerry Jones.