Reed thoughts after the Summer League wraps up

The Rockets drafted a kid with Steph Curry potential and seem to be trying to turn him into a Holiday brother (no offense to them, it is a different style of play.)

We watched Alpi's offensive game suffer a bit last year as he focused more on defense.  Was this the right choice?  Alpi is unquestionably top five at the five on offense.  So, what's the ceiling?  How about develop that more and let him be just ok on defense?  Isn't that a better plus/minus equation for the team?

It is a very limited sample, but did we see this at the summer league with Reed?  We sure as heck saw that sweet, pure stroke.  It was breathtaking at times.  But then we saw him throwing his little body around on D, trying to get rebounds and protect the rim but as a result he sometimes seemed gassed on the other end.

In the current Rockets culture, you've got to play high effort D.  But does he have to do it to the extent that he's air balling on the other end?  What shooting percentage do we get from this kid on offense if he's just out on the wing on another shooter on defense.  Isn't that also a better plus/minus play?

It is hard to imagine that he will ever start or even be the next option behind FVV in the Rockets current format.

And goodbye to Cam Whitmore and yes, it is related.  What an athlete.  Unfortunately, the Rocket refused to use this man as an offensive spark plug and let his defense be decent or develop to a decent level.  So, they straight up threw him away.

If they continue on this path with Reed, they are going to have to throw him away too.  He's not going to be a top level defender this year.  Aaron Holiday is a superior defender and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the second line instead of Reed.  So, then, what?  You turn another lottery pick into two second rounds picks again?

It'll be interesting to watch.

Jabari's big chance

To learn from the great, Kevin Durant.  What I hope to see, but probably won't see, is Jabari being put into position to *be* Kevin Durant.

What do I mean?

Mainly, don't put Jabari in the starting lineup or generally on the floor with KD much.  He's going to have no option but to stand around and catch and shoot while Alpi and Kevin cook.  (One big exception to this below.). 

Put him on the bench and when Kevin is out, give him the same assignment.  Put him in the high post and see what he can do running the offense.  Pair him with the newly acquired DFS to be his shooter.

As I mentioned in the last post, Kevin will likely miss a bunch of games for injuries and totally sensible rest.  When that happens, drop Jabari back into the starting lineup filling the KD role as best he can.

Not starting Jabari also creates space for the Rockets to start Tari Eason and Amen Thompson.  Tari is still developing but might see an immediate improvement in his already decent three point percentage playing alongside KD.  Having both Tari and Amen on the floor makes life on the defensive end easier for KD and  probably Alpi too.  Is Tari ready for 36 minutes?  Who cares.  Start him and have him play the same 24 if that is what is needed for him to maintain his famous intensity.  Again, you've got DFS too so there are no holes in the front line rotation.

First line:

KD

Tari

Alpi

Amen

FVV

Line change:

Jabari

DFS

Steven (Clint when Steven rests, I guess that is what he is for)

Reed Sheppard (you have to, you just have to)

Aaron Holiday

Since I touched on the option to go super big in the last post, how about the option to go small and all shooting?

The Rockets experimented with Jabari at the five last year.  (It didn't go well.)  But this is a new day.

We need points in a hurry and/or the other team has gone small -

KD

DFS

Jabari

Reed

Aaron

Kevin Durant

I'm a Longhorn, so of course, I'm happy ...

I write this for myself so I'll skip the sports yak BS and write about two things.

1. The Rockets might have the most scary lineup in the league.

Imaging if you will, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith, Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun.  The Sengun, Adams, Thompson lineup is already deadly.  Now, you've added one of the best scorers on the planet.  Thing one - with 35 feet of monsters in front of you, good luck with that shooting the ball thing and good luck with that getting your misses thing.  Pretend positions matter for a second and I'll just say that Durant might often be switched unto a two guard type object who is a half foot shorter than him.  Is Kevin older and slower?  Yes, but he was never fast and he's going to snag that miss when Ant tries to shoot over him.  The smallest person in this lineup is a super athlete and already NBA all defense.  If you sell out to get rebounds Amen will shred you on the break.  If you sell out to get back Kevin will shred you in the half court.

Ime might wait and develop this lineup and roll it out late in the season towards the playoffs.  Let's wait and see.

2.  Kevin Durant being old is a feature.

Rafael Stone is as smart as a they come.  He knows what he's getting and what it was worth.  Cam Whitmore, Reed Sheppard and Tari Eason need to develop.  Kevin sitting for 1/4 or 1/3 or 1/2 of the season isn't a problem it's an opportunity.  Houston needs "playoff Kevin" and they need enough spark during the regular season to get a high seed.

Elon's list of accomplishments this week

 1. Reduced my own net worth by more than a hundred million.

2. Confused millions with billions multiple times.

3. Counted several things twice.

4. Fixed my own math errors.

5. Fixed the math errors caused by the previous fixes to my math errors.

6. Blew up big, big rocket! Pow! Pow!

7. Griefed a bunch of provisional and established government employees because ...

8. Reduced my net worth by more than a hundred billion.  Oops!

The NBA season is a mess. Let's fix it.

The NBA Cup is ok but needs more of a playoff feel and more real incentive to participate.  The All Star weekend is ok (and nobody knows how to fix the All Star Game) and the players need rest.  As someone who watches all 82, I'm watching a lot of tired and sometimes listless basketball.

It is a hard sport.  These guys need a lot more rest.  And changing the game from 48 to 40 minutes doesn't fix back-to-backs and endless travel.

Let's jazz it up and make the NBA Cup very real and many more regular season games real, all while being kinder to the players, which will result in better games.

A Modest Proposal:

The pre-season should be shorter with scrimmages, not games, and the season should start sooner.

Eliminate conferences and eliminate divisions.

Back-to-back games are eliminated forever under all circumstances.

Each team would have two, permanent rivals.  For example, Houston would have Dallas and San Antonio as rivals. (Full list at the bottom for fun.)

Start the season by playing all the other teams other than rivals.  That's 27 games.

Then have a mid season tournament.

Three team rival groups would play in a five game series against their rivals (this also reduces travel.)

That's 10 more games for a total of 37 for each team.

The six best of the 10 rival groups advance to the NBA Cup.  

The bottom six teams are also eliminated for the *NBA Playoffs* - yes, I said it.  If your team is tanking, you don't care, if you are on the margins you need to fight like hell to stay in.

Tie breakers could remain point margin or somebody please think of something better.

NBA Cup games count as real games.

I suggest moving this week and weekend to the gap weekend before the Super Bowl.

NBA Cup weekend goes like this -

Sunday (NFL championship week) is the first day of no games.  Who's watching anyway?

Monday trade deadline.

Yes, this means trades could be made to improve before the Cup.  That's exciting.

All the below would be at a neutral site like today's All Star weekend and NBA Cup.

Wednesday - Play in games featuring the four lowest seeds, losers go to the bronze game, two winners advance.

Friday - NBA Cup semifinals, losers goes to the silver game, two winners advance to the gold game.

All Star Saturday.  Three point contest and dunk contest.  A real game featuring All Stars and Rising Stars who didn't participate in the NBA Cup or either contest.  This is an incentive to compete in the contests and gives stars not on top teams or with special skills a chance to show out.

Sunday - Triple header with bronze game, silver game and gold game.  It's so international, Adam Silver will love it.

At this point, the NBA Cup participants will have played 39 games or 40 if a play in team got to the gold game. These will be hard games, but at a neutral site so, that's less travel.

All Stars will also have played an extra game but should have enough space to give it some actual effort.

The following Thursday starts the stretch run of the season.  Everyone will have had some rest.

The remainder of the season will be similar to today with more excitement and benefits for NBA Cup participants.

Each team plays every team play that isn't a rival again.  That's 27 more games.

That's 66 or 67 games for NBA Cup teams.  That's 64 games for everybody else.

Rest before the playoffs is the reward for getting into the NBA Cup tournament ...

The final 15 days of the season, NBA Cup teams play six games against the lowest seeded NBA Cup teams.  The teams that were 25-30 in the NBA Cup ranking.  Also, they've been eliminated as per above and have incentives to tank.  Unless it is a very, very weird year, this should be the six worst teams playing with little motivation.  These would be like scrimmage games for the very good teams.

The six worst teams finish with 70 games.  A slight punishment for tanking and a reprieve for the rest of us since we don't have to watch them anymore.

For the NBA Cups teams, these games should be easier because of the opponent and because they are spread out, allowing for a lot of rest.

NBA Cup teams have now played 72 games.

The remaining 18 teams play eight games in the same 15 day period.  (Again, still no back to backs allowed.)

These are all middle of the pack teams, fighting for playoff position.  Four are (very mathematically likely) fighting to not be eliminated.

These are exciting games leading to the season's end.  And, I suggest, almost like yet another tournament.

The end of the NBA regular season is usually a snooze fest.  This makes it very exciting.  Every game for 60% of the league is a playoff implication game.

The rest of the league has now played 72 games.

The playoffs are structured like this ...

It's a seeded tournament of 20 teams.

The top twelve teams are automatically in, with NBA Cup performance breaking any ties.

The next eight teams compete in a play in tournament while the top twelve teams rest.  NBA Cup performance again breaks ties.

Then the playoff proceed as seven game series like they have for many years, just without the conference structure.

--

Rivals as promised:

Portland - Sacramento - Golden State

LA - LA - Phoenix

Utah - Denver - OKC

Houston - San Antonio - Dallas

New Orleans - Orlando - Miami (not in same conference or division now!)

Memphis - Atlanta - Charlotte (not in same conference or division now!)

Minnesota - Milwaukie - Chicago (not in same conference or division now!)

Indiana - Cleveland - Detroit

Toronto - Boston - NY

Brooklyn - Philadelphia - Washington

The most hated setting on the Mac

 Settings -> Trackpad -> Force Click and haptic feedback (this must be turned off to do normal things like rearrange stuff on the Dock, or drag and drop things from it.)

Sorting my thoughts post NBA free agency

Give Rafael Stone credit.  He inherited an over the cap team with a cheapskate owner, a fat, pissed off superstar and no draft capital and he's managed the team into its current position, which is quite promising.

The last time the Rockets contended, Tillman Fertitta let Trevor Ariza walk for $15m/yr.  That looks even worse in hindsight.  The Rockets were inches from the Finals.  Ariza was arguably their fifth or sixth best offensive player and probably their best defender.  Losing him led to a cascade of bad decisions - Carmelo Anthony, pretending Erik Gordon was a forward, trading Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook (using all their draft capital and then Chris Paul went to the Finals) and then trading away Clint Capela for a role player because Westbrook can't shoot.

This theme will recur.  For now, let's look at Rockets roster as currently constructed.

VETERANS

Guards:

Fred Vanfleet

Aaron Holiday

Forwards:

Jae'sean

Jeff Green

Dillon Brooks

Centers:

Steven Adams

Jock Landale

That's a pretty good group.  But the Rockets are probably not thinking any of these guys are part of the long term future.  (Maybe there is a future where Vanfleet takes a lesser deal and stays.). The veterans are here to make the team competitive now, to teach the young guys and to be salaries for trade.

The group represents $107M/year in salaries on "team friendly" deals.  Those salaries could be traded.  They will almost all just go away over the next two summers if the Rockets want room to sign one or more free agents.

So, the Rockets have put themselves in good position to either trade for a couple of max salaries or sign a couple of max salaries or a max and some other quality vets.  And they are doing this while being playoff quality now.

If you add to the mix the Rocket re-stocked draft capital, swinging for stars or quality veterans seems very doable.

There has been a lot of speculation that the Rockets are specifically watching the Phoenix Suns.  If the season starts badly, the Suns could get a lot for Durant.  And they could suffer Bradley Beal until his deal expires.  But then they either need to build around Devin Booker or bring in a haul to move him.  The problem with building around Booker is that the Suns can't tank because the Houston Rockets own all their draft picks. So, the Rockets are the Suns only path to getting their picks back and making them valuable by intentionally tanking.  Intriguing.  And if the Suns don't want to do the deal and stay mediocre and expensive at the same time, the Rockets can either use the picks or trade them to someone else.  That 2027 pick is looking pretty damn good.

YOUNG GUYS

Guards:

Jalen Green

Amen Thompson

Reed Sheppard

AJ Griffin

Forwards:

Jabari Smith

Tari Eason

Cam Whitmore

Center:

Alperen Sengun

This is a group full of promise and all of these guys are on their rookie deals.  The question here is, who gets paid?  The Rockets are on the clock to max out Sengun and Green next summer.  Barring something catastrophic, signing Sengun to his extension seems like a no brainer.  Green will probably have to show that he can consistently perform.

And if it isn't going to be Green, the one or more of Whitmore, Thompson, Smith and (yes, I'm saying it) Eason need to emerge as a great players and one or more of them will need to get paid.  Some of these guys and some of the rest of the young group could be traded or could slip comfortably into role players roles with role player salaries.

The NBA favors re-signing a team's own players, so presumably the Rockets have to either trade or clear cap space by next summer, and have acquired one or more giant salaries so they can then go over the cap to resign Sengun and Green.  Or again, some combination of Sengun and their next best homegrown talents.

And this is where the Fertitta is a cheapskate screed come back into play.  Are the Rockets willing to go over the cap or way over the cap to contend?

Fertitta was sold on the "moneyball" concept.  Are he and Rafael Stone talking about how to get the best team near the cap, or how to do anything to win?

The Warriors did it for years to win and the recent champion Celtics will pay hundreds of millions in luxury taxes over the next few years if they keep this team together.

The Rockets could be following the Celtics playbook for team building.  It might actually be the only format that works now under the CBA. Which is, find a couple of guys in the draft that are true stars.  Fill the team with quality (expensive) veterans *before* their inexpensive deals expire and then pay them the max and go way, way over the cap to create a title window.